IT SMELLS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WITH AN EPILOGUE ALL IN GOVERNMENT
Without opposition in the assembly and under European control in implementation of European reform tasks
writes: Zoran Ivanov
I do not know why after the statement of the president of the state everyone started talking about the electoral model. It is not a theme as there will simply be no change. Not that it is unnecessary, on the contrary. But for a simple reason that our parties can not push for an ordinary reform in any area, let alone agree and take on a new form of electoral model, one for such a complex, complicated, difficult and uncertain operation. Therefore, there will be no change of the electoral model in the foreseeable future, at least not from the current party generations.
However, it is important that this or that way, there will be early parliamentary elections this year. Because of the rigidity of Macron and Merkel, yes, but above all, due to the domestic inertia with reforms. The West, the Union more specifically, is tired of itself, but it is also too tired of us. Of our inter-party whims. The German chancellor, for example, have sent us and paid Priebe twice and we did nothing. And we say the European Babylonian woman was to blame, she promised us something, she promised us blah, blah.
Therefore, it is usual for us, when there is nothing and nowhere to, let’s have elections. Anyway the situation in the government like until here with DUI, from here on without it, is becoming denser. It seems that if SDSM does not want to sink completely, it will have to end it with the eternal partner with everyone. Of course, if the coalition partner’s arrogance does not calm. If that does not happen quickly, SDSM has nowhere to go so early elections are quite possible.
The projection would be everyone in the elections alone, so all combinations are possible for the future coalitions. From SDSM variant with DUI, SDSM without DUI, SDSM with Alliance and Besa, but also SDSM with VMRO-DPMNE and with Alliance and Besa, and perhaps with some cadre of DUI or again with the entire DUI. One such nonsense everyone with everyone and everyone without anyone in the first next post-election government now resembles a sci-fi story. But how things are going, everything is possible. Even in a European cabinet, it may already be projected as a direction and as an opportunity to realistically start with reforms without opposition constraints and without political caprice.
The country is facing uncertainty about receiving a date for the start of negotiations with the Union. In order for an invitation to occur, the powerful in this alliance should be convinced that we have the capacity to step out or that we can still do something fast. It is possible only without a lot of dragging and with full cooperation inside the current government coalition and with the opposition, with VMRO-DPMNE and with the Alliance and Besa. Either this or early elections. The situation between the government and the opposition in parliament everything to be forcefully pushed is over. The ruling coalition wasted that energy and that capital with the agreement with the southern neighbor and constitutional changes. Since then there has been almost nothing radically happening in the political and reform plans. And there is no beginning of negotiations without quick, deep and thorough engagements.
In the meantime, the presidential elections happened and a standstill of entire month and a half of the country’s functioning. This was a welcome alibi to the government to relax from the Prespa tiredness, but that was also the enthusiasm of the reform energy. So if Macedonia now, already this summer does not get a date, then early parliamentary elections are certain. The layout of political forces, judging by the presidential election results and according to some more relevant polls, suggests that late autumn or early winter, however, extorted early elections will occur.
Observed from that angle, from the current mood of the voters, including the higher percentage of emigrants, abstainers and invalid ballots, the distribution of political power among the parties in both the Macedonian and Albanian electorates is more equal. It is therefore obvious that if elections are to be held by the end of this year, the distribution of forces in parliament will be a result of a draw, along all the lines.
It is sensed that SDSM would have some advantage, probably viewed separately for each party, it would be the same for DUI. But both SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE certainly know that a coalition with DUI or only with it, is already a wasted project. The assumption is that they are aware of this in the DUI itself, and that they will need a little longer than a year and a half to consume the status of the opposition. Of course, for all these not so many combinations but thoughts, voters will have the keyword. For now, their mood, judging by the indicators of the presidential elections, is somehow moving in that direction.
This first, because the coalitions in our country are determined by the citizens’ votes, and secondly, it is realistic to expect a roughly equitable electoral score in the DUI on one and the Alliance and Besa on the other hand and the same with SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE. Hence, the elective epilogue would still be conceived on a green table. And, with a little political will and without much tension, and because of concrete Brussels tasks and Brussels controls, everyone would be in one government.
In fact, even if there is a narrow election result for all and SDSM gets the mandate and instead with DUI to cooperate with the already more powerful Alliance and Besa, without a stable majority, and especially without the necessary two-thirds for the reforms in a package with their implementation, the eventual opposition of VMRO-DPMNE and DUI would be too embarrassing for the government. Well, then, there will be no reforms again and no Europe again.
This, somehow, with narrow election results among all the more important political parties and with a calculated post-election crisis, it would be possible to form a government of salvation or of unity or a broad government or reform or even Przino or no matter what it is called. In doing so, as usual, as with all our party quarrels, everything is mediated by foreigners. Mainly with the engagement of European and US diplomacy. With their agenda for rapidly starting negotiations with the Union, with everyone in government, without opposition in the assembly and, most importantly, under European control in creating European reform commitments.
And, if, at the expense of the reforms, the quarrels continue between the government and the opposition, then it is very possible that the Union should urge early parliamentary elections to compose a parliament and a government that, under the control of the Brussels bureaucrats and in conditions without opposition, would push reforms. Especially in the judiciary, in the state administration, in dealing with corruption and in the liberation of institutions. Without progress in these areas, there is no beginning of negotiations. And if there is no beginning, then there will be elections. Like it or not, a parliament without opposition and the widest government with specific tasks and deadlines would be drafted from outside.
Of course, one such unimaginable yet still possible post-election design is possible and feasible only with the maximum will of all participants in the political life. With a political culture that will override selfish narrow-mindedness. With party leaders who will have the virtue to manifest togetherness for their country’s forward to citizens. With a plan on precisely defined tasks all together to move the country to the faster track for Europe.
So, without opposition in the assembly and under European control in the implementation of European reform tasks. I have no doubt that the theses will be labeled as voluntary. That is what they are. But autumn will come and we will see.
After all, as a rule everything starts from the idea and from the hypothesis. There will always be time for party battles. Now we have to find at least a year, two, three to advance for European Macedonia. This, of course, can happen only if the citizens say so in the elections.
Until then, just as God made us, to get a tan on the beaches, the summer to end and then we will see.
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