Reading of an electoral “deconstruction”
writes: Bardhyl Zaimi
Surveys show the sensitivity of the electorate in a certain socio-political moment, but also in which direction could this electorate possibly turn. The latest results from the survey conducted by “Telma” and the Macedonian Centre for International Cooperation showed political and social sensitivity, which is not far from the perception and analyses done before.
In fact, in some respects, this research only confirms socio-political argumentative analysis made by careful observers and experts in electoral sociology. Certainly some results of this research remain to be analysed, because they represent a kind of “surprise” for the election movements in this period.
According to this survey, most of the respondents, almost 59 percent, reported that they were not in favour of early elections. Continuous holding of early elections appears to be followed by a kind of fatigue among the citizens. It seems that the sensitivity to early elections has been drastically reduced. Many of the problems that citizens face have brought the elections in the background as an opportunity for change, as has always been argued by political parties.
This statement is also related to another fact that arises from this survey. Almost 40 percent of the respondents did not express confidence in any politician. These two facts show an electoral apathy of disappointing proportions towards politics. Certainly, this electoral apathy is nothing new, it remains present in almost every election cycle and in some way also denotes the number of the undecided voters.
Regardless of the other results that arise from this survey, which can be “transcribed” with triumphalism or with doubts, one thing remains certain, the feelings of apathy are present everywhere among Macedonian citizens. But in general, political sensitivity at a certain moment, but also during elections, is measured by electoral body that expresses the will for democratic participation.
It is already known that the electoral structuring is not permanent. It is subject to transformations depending on political bids and depending on the confidentiality and ability to convince the electorate of a political vision. Sometimes electoral movements may be more emphasized, and in other cases they appear slow, but with constant tendencies.
Although SDSM comes out of this research as a winning party at the state level with the Macedonian electorate, it is about 5 percent behind the VMRO-DPMNE, which seems to have a structured electorate despite the low rating of its leader. It is clear that the results of the leader’s rating do not coincide with party results. It makes people realize that citizens know how to distinguish the leader’s performance from party ideology, which in most cases is associated with a “traditionally” structured sensitivity.
With the Albanian electorate this difference between the rating of the leader and the rating of the party can also be perceived. Ali Ahmeti from DUI as a leader among the Albanians is ahead of the AA leader, Zijadin Sela. Both of the two parties have not had any increase in the electorate, and they remain at the same level of the previous figures. The BESA movement has a rating of 2.5 percent.
One surprise that “deconstructs” the current election logic is related to the SDSM’s political commitment to the Albanian electorate. The leader of this party, Zoran Zaev, is already the second in terms of rating among Albanians, and his party is minimally more favoured with the Albanian electorate. For the first time, the Macedonian political party has a higher rating among the electorate as compared to the Albanian parties.
It seems that this phenomenon has two explanations. It is obvious that DUI has been in the process of delegitimizing and has been rejecting a part of the Albanian electorate since the previous elections. A slow political burying, at first glance unremarkable, is addressing a political structure, which seems to slowly “fall apart” despite the high ratings of their leader. Perhaps the weak position in the government allowed some of the Albanian electorate to be oriented towards SDSM.
The second explanation is related to the lack of a clear, creative and comprehensive alternative that would benefit from this political “burial” of DUI. A fragmentary opposition, from time to time, that fails to fully announce its vision in opposition to the ruling parties.
However, still according to this research, we have a kind of an electoral “deconstruction” that already sets another political “thinking” and political reflection in order to change even the current positions. One thing remains certain, the numerous expectations, the numerous social disintegrations, the “deconstruction” of the great narratives that are not accompanied by a sense of reality, have already created an unpredictable orientation of the electorate, especially the Albanian one. Also, in this phase of political evolution, it seems that a decisive political offer remains, which must recognize a politically animated and credible project for the citizens of any electoral hemisphere.
The rating of the leader cannot always be “transcribed” in the rating of the party. A leader’s rating can be determined by other parameters, sometimes as “mythical” projections. The ratings of parties are determined by internal structuring and the expansion of a political vision among the electorate. And certainly by the political ideology shaped as an offer for a complex whole called electorate!
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